Adapting Peacemaking to Modern Conflict Dynamics
26/07/2024
By Clionadh Raleigh
The landscape of conflict has drastically changed over the past two decades. Traditional civil wars are no longer the primary form of conflict. Instead, a growing number of people are affected by violence perpetrated by gangs, militias, cartels, mobs, and rioters. This shift necessitates an evolution in our approach to peacemaking, as many of these actors are not interested in peace but rather in the power and resources that violence can bring.
In recent years, the most significant increases in conflict have occurred not in failed or fragile states but in middle and high-income nations, including those with democratic features. This underscores that modern violence is a feature of political competition and can occur at any level of governance. Therefore, our approach to engaging with these actors must be similarly political, recognising that the motivations for violence are deeply intertwined with the quest for power.
One disturbing trend is that engaging in violence is not sufficiently costly. Until the consequences of violence outweigh its benefits, we will continue to see its prevalence. Peacemaking efforts need to address this imbalance, making violence a less attractive option. This requires a comprehensive understanding of the specific political, economic, and social incentives that drive conflict in different regions.
The diversity of conflicts across the globe means there is no one-size-fits-all solution. The strategies used to address violence in Colombia, for example, will differ from those in the Philippines, Mexico, Haiti, or Sudan. Each context requires tailored approaches that consider the unique drivers of conflict and the local political dynamics.
Inclusion is often touted as a key strategy for preventing conflict. However, inclusion alone is not a panacea. While inclusive political processes can help stabilise a country in the long term, they can also lead to increased violence in the short term. This is particularly true when political actors use violence to maintain their access to power. A study of African states over the past 20 years found that more inclusive national cabinets were associated with a higher likelihood of militia activity. This suggests that politicians invested in violence to secure and maintain their positions of power.
Thus, while political engineering aimed at creating more inclusive governance structures is essential, it must be approached with caution. Integrating excluded groups into the political process can lead to greater instability and conflict in the short term. The challenge is to balance these short-term risks with the long-term goal of sustainable peace.
The complexity of modern conflicts means that our response strategies must also evolve. Traditional peacemaking tools and approaches are often insufficient for dealing with the multifaceted nature of contemporary violence. For example, engaging with cartels, insurgent groups like the Taliban, or state governments involved in assassination campaigns requires different tactics and strategies. This calls for a broader range of tools and a willingness to experiment with new approaches to conflict resolution.
One critical aspect of modern peacemaking is recognising that not all conflicts will have a peace process led by external actors. Local solutions and local leadership are often more effective and sustainable. External actors can play a supportive role, providing resources, expertise, and facilitation, but the primary responsibility for peace must lie with those directly affected by the conflict.
In conclusion, the patterns of conflict have changed, and our peacemaking strategies must change with them. This requires a nuanced understanding of the political dynamics driving violence and a willingness to adapt our approaches to meet the unique challenges of each conflict. While the task is daunting, it is not insurmountable. With innovative thinking and a commitment to addressing the root causes of violence, we can develop more effective strategies for promoting peace in our increasingly complex world.
Clionadh Raleigh is President and CEO, ACLED