Diplomatic Challenges and Opportunities: Navigating Peacemaking in a Fragmented World
15/07/2024
By Carl Bildt
In 2011, a few of us embarked on the initiative to establish a unique organisation aimed at facilitating diplomacy beyond the formal diplomatic channels. This idea took roughly three years to materialise, garnering support from several states. By design, this organisation is not an EU institution; we deliberately wanted to create something that wasn’t formally tied to existing institutions, yet carried a distinctly European flavour. The primary goal was to engage in diplomacy that diplomats could not, or should not, undertake—talking to malign actors and brokering peace in ways that would be politically sensitive or embarrassing for official channels. Is this approach still necessary today? Absolutely. The issues that existed a decade ago, such as fragmented states, are still present, but now we face an even more fragmented world, complicating these issues further.
The Russian aggression is the most obvious example of the fragmented world we now live in, but there are numerous others. These global divisions make dealing with fragmented states even more challenging. Peacemaking is often known for its failures because they are visible—when war erupts, it’s evident that conflict resolution has failed. However, we must not overlook the many instances where peace efforts have quietly prevented conflicts. These successes don’t make headlines because they don’t result in dramatic events, but without determined peace efforts in various situations, we would have seen many more conflicts.
I can cite several examples where diplomatic efforts have averted potential disasters. People often question how we know these efforts were successful since history only happens once, and we can’t see the alternate outcomes. Nonetheless, there are numerous cases where determined diplomatic efforts have been instrumental in preventing violence. This paradox means that while we are often recognised for our failures, our successes go unnoticed.
Is there a new framework for peace that can be effective in today’s complex environment? Unfortunately, my rather pessimistic answer is no. In fact, it is more complicated now than ever before. Successful peace efforts require all international actors to be on the same page. If there is division among international players, local actors will exploit these divisions, making peace unattainable. History shows that when international unity is achieved, peace can follow, but in a fragmented world, this unity is increasingly rare.
Consider two glaring failures: Nagorno-Karabakh and Cyprus. The Minsk process for Nagorno-Karabakh, involving Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey, was hindered by competing interests among the mediators. Similarly, the ongoing division of Cyprus, with a capital patrolled by the United Nations, exemplifies how international divisions can perpetuate local conflicts. Despite numerous attempts to resolve the Cyprus issue, competing pressures have maintained the status quo.
In some cases, however, the absence of international division has facilitated progress. For example, in the Philippines, a relatively unified international approach has helped move peace efforts forward. There are areas where peace efforts should be possible, but the current fragmented international environment makes these successes harder to achieve.
Long-term peace efforts have been crucial, as highlighted by the European Union’s history of integration and enlargement. For centuries, Europe was plagued by conflicts, but integration has brought stability. The future of Ukraine, for instance, hinges on its integration into the European Union. While ending the conflict is possible, achieving lasting peace requires deeper integration and enlargement. The same applies to the Balkans, where long-term peace depends on continued integration into the EU.
As we look ahead, the next European Commission and Parliament will have crucial roles to play. Enlargement must be taken seriously to build long-term peace in Europe. If the next five years see a renewed focus on integration, we can make significant strides toward a peaceful European future. Failure to do so, however, will leave us facing ongoing instability.
While peacemaking faces significant challenges in today’s fragmented world, it remains as relevant and necessary as ever. Success requires international unity and a commitment to long-term integration and enlargement strategies. As we navigate these complexities, it’s vital to recognise both the visible failures and the quiet successes of diplomatic efforts in preventing conflict and building a more peaceful world.
Carl Bildt is Co-Chair, ECFR and former Prime Minister of Sweden