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The title of the 10th edition of the TRT World Forum ‘A World Without a Centre: what happens when the rules run out?’ captured the vibe and informed all the discussions, formal and informal, over the last few days in Istanbul.

A pervasive theme was that middle and regional powers like Türkiye will need to step up to address the security and diplomatic deficit created by distracted and unreliable great powers. In the air was whether ad hoc ‘transactional multilateralism’ will ever be enough to manage a growing range of risks: out of control AI, weaponisation of maritime choke points and supply chains, food insecurity and chronic humanitarian crises, and young people’s increasing impatience with politicians.

In a deeply interconnected world in which seemingly isolated events in one place can have huge global ramifications, the old order is collapsing and respect for international law diminishing, damaged by its inconsistent application, not least in Gaza, but what will replace it remains obscure. The need for effective global bodies like the UN is evident but many face crises of legitimacy and capability; they need to be redesigned and rebooted if they are to remain relevant.

These issues could not be more relevant in the Horn of Africa; the war in Sudan, multiple other conflict faultlines and the engagement of regional and global powers are creating a combustible cocktail with already terrible humanitarian consequences; worse may be to come.

Our Executive Director, Michael Keating, took part in a discussion on diplomacy, geoeconomics and emerging security challenges in the Horn of Africa.

The discussion was moderated by TRT’s Grace Kuria and brought together Ibrahim Mayaki, former Prime Minister of Niger and African Union Special Envoy for Food Systems; Pierre Krähenbühl, Director General of the International Committee of the Red Cross; Workneh Gebeyehu, Executive Secretary of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development; and Stefano Manservisi, former Director General for International Cooperation and Development at the European Commission.

The conclusion was that crisis management is essential right now, but not enough; missing are coherent approaches by national, African and regional actors and organisations to what should be a shared common interest: investing in stability, food security, ensuring jobs for young people and region-wide economic development as a basis for peace and security.