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The annual Munich Security Conference rarely fails to deliver geopolitical fireworks, though in terms of political impact, last year’s speech by US Vice President JD Vance sets a high bar, as did Canadian PM Mark Carney’s speech last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos. 

The European Institute of Peace will be in Munich again this year, including to co-host together with the International Committee of the Red Cross an event on the ugly phenomenon of dehumanisation, an old issue now dramatically exacerbated by AI and social media, and its impact on conflict prevention, resolution, human dignity and International Humanitarian Law (IHL). 

More broadly, our goal in Munich will be to speak up for the centrality of dialogue as a means to reduce tensions, manage risks and find lasting solutions to violent conflict. Our work around the world underscores its political and practical value to people and states. Discretion is our watchword, but at a time when peacemaking and dialogue are being instrumentalised including for commercial ends, the opportunity to engage in this gold-plated networking event is unique.

Engagement and dialogue are not an alternative but an essential complement to defence and deterrence. They are needed more than ever at a time when threats, both short and long term, to peace and security are mounting, as are the number of armed conflicts. The number of people being killed, traumatised, displaced and in need of life saving humanitarian assistance is surging.

Transformative technologies, widening inequality and the security implications of the growing interconnectedness of trade, supply chains and access to critical minerals are creating new dynamics, including the risk that unresolved disputes in one domain could trigger larger conflagration. Dialogue is essential to understand conflicting motives, be honest about objectives, to find ways to manage conflict and tease out common interests, no matter how adversarial the larger context. 

US President Donald Trump has put peacemaking at the top of the political agenda; this was long overdue. He has exposed some of the deficiencies of past approaches to ending immediate violence and resolving conflicts. But his transactional approach has limitations and creates new risks, not least in terms of addressing underlying issues that trigger and sustain conflict, including unmet political aspirations, a sense of injustice, inequality and exclusion. 

One challenge is to use the space created by new approaches and, alas, the fraying of the rules-based order to advance non-violent approaches to conflict resolution and threat mitigation. Munich will be a great place to engage with some of the world’s most thoughtful and consequential policy and decision makers. 

Michael Keating – Executive Director, European Institute of Peace