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This paper is the fourth in a series generated by the European Institute of Peace (EIP) monitoring the impact of Covid-19 on fragile and conflict-affected states. Focusing on Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Ukraine and Yemen, it examines the impact, evolution and potential medium- and long-term ramifications of the pandemic in these countries. It is motivated by the importance of drawing attention to the situation facing people that are most vulnerable to violence with a view to suggesting actionable recommendations for European policymakers.

The Institute issued a baseline Impact Analysis in early April. The pandemic continues to threaten access to essential food and medical supplies, to accentuate and accelerate pre- existing political and societal cleavages and expose fundamental economic vulnerabilities, including inequality, poverty and absence of opportunity, especially for young people. In many places it is affecting levels of violence and the behaviour of conflict parties in ways that reduce rather than increase access to humanitarian assistance.

In the Ukraine, for example, the closure of the contact line with armed guard formations between the non-government-controlled areas (NGCAs) and the government-controlled areas (GCAs) has limited the delivery of aid and medical supplies despite a steady increase in the infection rate. There has also been an increase in violence with repeated ceasefire violations. In Syria, the poorest are inevitably bearing the brunt of the pandemic, following a steep drop in remittances and spiralling increases in food prices. So far at least, outbreaks in camps or IDP shelters have not occurred, sparing Syria from the worst-case scenario predictions.

As the economic consequences of lockdowns and confinement become more extreme, the ability and willingness of authorities to enforce lockdown and social distancing measures are diminishing. These are difficult enough to enforce in states where institutional capacity is strong, and governments enjoy a high degree of public trust; they are much more difficult in weaker states or in countries where politicians and powerbrokers are politicising responses to the virus.

As weeks become months, those living in precarious circumstances in fragile states will have no other alternative than to return to work. In the Afghan capital Kabul, people are turning a blind eye to official medical advice and resuming economic activity, much to the consternation of the authorities.

Undoubtedly, this pandemic will test international solidarity to the limit, despite the potential for immense hardship and suffering already facing people in fragile and conflict affected states. Many countries are likely to see a significant decrease in international support as the GDP of donor countries and levels of development assistance drop, the operating environment on the ground deteriorates, and political interest and support is absorbed by domestic economic and security priorities.

In Yemen, for example, the WHO spent USD 4 billion in 2019 on humanitarian efforts; halfway through 2020, it has only received USD 700 million. In Afghanistan the US has announced a cut of USD 1 billion from its bilateral support. The EU seems to be bucking that trend by announcing a €10.5 billion top-up for the EU’s Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI) as part of its new seven-year budget proposal in a press conference on 2 June. This longer-term financial commitment towards external action positions the EU as a reliable, responsive and predictable geopolitical actor.

The prospect for people, especially women, children and marginalised groups, in fragile and conflict affected states is not good. In preparing these reports, the Institute hopes to contribute to conflict sensitive responses to the virus. In each context, a priority should be to identify with local and international actors ways in which this unfolding crisis can create openings for dialogue, advance political processes and to reprioritise and focus aid and investment in ways that address some of the root causes of conflict.

In the meantime, despite an overall increase in unrest and the potential for conflict since the pandemic began, there have been some chinks of light.

In Yemen, women’s groups have been playing an active role by informing the population about Covid-19 protocols to minimize contamination and by engaging in UN-led peace process and track 2 mediation processes. This will have an important impact in countering harmful conspiracy theories and propaganda. Possibly the most significant breakthrough has occurred in Afghanistan where a power-sharing agreement between Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani and his electoral rival Abdullah Abdullah has been negotiated, and ‘the ‘Eid holiday was marked by a ceasefire. This comes against a backdrop of terrible violence and the spread of Covid-19. The hurdles and pitfalls ahead should not be under-estimated, but there are some grounds for optimism that the stage is being set for intra-Afghan negotiations and a political process.