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This third edition of the European Institute of Peace ‘Covid–19 Impact Analysis’ series provides a snapshot of the political, social and economic consequences of the pandemic on conflict- affected states where the Institute is active or maintains a watching brief. It is motivated by the importance of drawing attention to the situation facing people that are most vulnerable to violence at a time when many European and developed countries are absorbed by domestic issues. Going beyond the immediate humanitarian imperative, Europeans have both a responsibility and an opportunity to support a conflict sensitive response to the widening impact of the virus. Failure to do so is likely to have consequences not only for people in these countries but for Europe too.

The intention is to offer actionable recommendations in volatile and rapidly evolving contexts to policy makers in the EU, European states and their international partners. The analysis highlights regions and specific locations where there is a heightened risk of an eruption of violence connected to the pandemic, such as in eastern DRC and identifies opportunities for engagement in renewed conflict resolution efforts, such as among Cameroon’s anglophone community. It focuses specifically on the situations in Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Liptako-Gourma, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Colombia and Venezuela, and builds on previous findings based on in-house expertise and on-the-ground reporting and analysis. Particular attention is given to international responses and the broader impact on conflict resolution and peace efforts.

On the basis of this report, the overall situation remains volatile. Some parties to conflict initially responded to the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ call for a ceasefire but this has been overshadowed by opportunistic moves by both state and non-state actors to entrench power and legitimise and fast-forward narrow objectives. The failure of the Security Council to pass a resolution supportive of the Secretary-General’s efforts, combined with increased geopolitical tensions including between its Permanent Members and restrictions on movement, have not created an environment conducive to concerted efforts by European, independent or local actors to encourage and support dialogue on the ground. Conflict resolution actors and mediators must, nevertheless, remain attuned to the evolving situation and exploit available opportunities to initiate dialogue.

The analysis reveals that each country is affected differently by the pandemic, but there are some commonalities emerging among fragile states. In Venezuela, Colombia, Sudan and South Sudan, for example, there has been a growing politicization of the pandemic which jeopardises an effective and evidence-oriented response. The economic impact will be on an unprecedented scale across all countries as a result of a combination of factors, including inflation (particularly of food prices), a sharp drop in remittances, employment and income. Countries reliant on oil revenue, such as South Sudan, Cameroon and Venezuela, have been doubly impacted. Armed groups have also taken advantage of the disruption to undermine weakened governments and there has been a resurgence of cross-border tensions, for example between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

The rolling out of the European Union’s ‘Team Europe’ response alongside other international efforts to support partner countries around the world will help to mitigate some of the worst outcomes, though major challenges remain. Social distancing in densely populated urban areas has proven difficult to enforce and medical facilities have come under increasing strain.

Europe has entered its ‘repair and prepare’ phase after the announcement on 27 May by President Ursula Von der Leyen of an unprecedented €750 billion Recovery Instrument ‘Next Generation EU’ to help Europeans address and recover from the impact of the virus. Solidarity among Europeans in addressing the impact of the virus at home needs to be complemented by a concerted effort, with partners to address the impact of Covid-19 in its neighbourhood and further afield, paying particular attention to fragile and conflict-affected states which are the most vulnerable.

The following analyses do not pretend to be comprehensive but are intended to contribute to a birds-eye view of the pandemic. We hope this will help policy makers to anticipate its potential scope for disruption, to refine appropriate tools and mechanisms to formulate a holistic response, consistent with European values and interests, and to make a stronger case for assigning funds, even at a time when fiscal space may be shrinking. Conflict-sensitive interventions accompanied by robust coordination between and among humanitarian, development and conflict resolution actors can help minimise harm and optimise Europe’s positive impact in addressing the crisis.